CLIMATE SCENARIOS
Following the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement (COP 21) in 2015, the Group’s product plan and strategy were redesigned to ensure its contribution to limiting global warming to well below 2°C.
This central trajectory underpins the Renaulution strategic plan. An analysis of alternative climate scenarios was also conducted to inform the Group’s risk management strategy up to 2050, with intermediate milestones in 2030 and 2040:
| NEW GREEN DEAL | ECO-TECHNO DRIVEN | RETREAT AND FRAGMENTATION | |
|---|---|---|---|
NEW GREEN DEAL 1,5°C |
ECO-TECHNO DRIVEN 3°C |
RETREAT AND FRAGMENTATION 4°C | |
| SCENARIO DESCRIPTION | SCENARIO DESCRIPTION NEW GREEN DEAL In this scenario, the raised awareness of climate risk by all stakeholders around the world (governments, financial institutions and citizen-consumers) drives more sustainable regulations, business models and lifestyles. This scenario is enabled by worldwide public-private collaborations. The main emitting industries participate fully in the transition to a low-carbon economy. Through efficient coordination with legislators and robust planning at a global level, new technologies to respond to climate change are developed. This systemic approach to mobility paves the way for the growth of efficient, multimodal services.d | SCENARIO DESCRIPTION ECO-TECHNO DRIVEN In this scenario, the most developed regions maintain worldwide growth. These regions succeed in combining low local levels of emissions with climate-focused economic expansion, through the development of new technologies (including mobility services). Despite this, the lack of worldwide commitment and of coordinated climate policy lead to global warming of about 3°C, whose physical impacts affect all populations. Carmakers are faced with a wide diversity of usages and demand from one region to another. | SCENARIO DESCRIPTION RETREAT AND FRAGMENTATION Global governance and technologies are lacking, leading to a general economic decline and a retreat from globalization in the aftermath of climate, economic and political crises. Physical risks such as floods, fires and droughts become frequent and uncontrollable, leading to population migration and wider inequalities. Low-tech and low-cost become the norm, including in mobility, and long-distance travel is discouraged. |
| HIGHEST RISKS | HIGHEST RISKS NEW GREEN DEAL Transition risks and opportunities | HIGHEST RISKS ECO-TECHNO DRIVEN Transition risksPhysical risks | HIGHEST RISKS RETREAT AND FRAGMENTATION Physical risks including structural, geographic and geopolitical changes |
Since 2017, climate scenario analysis has been an integral part of the Group’s strategic thinking. These analyses are based on external benchmark data, in particular:
- World Automotive Powertrain Outlook, used by the French automotive industry platform (PFA);
- 1.5TECH and 1.5LIFE scenarios presented by the European Commission on November 28, 2018;
- Energy Technology Perspectives, published by the International Energy Agency (the B2DS, or “Beyond 2°C” scenario).
In 2020, in alignment with the TCFD’s recommendations, the Group expanded and deepened its analysis of climate scenarios and the implications of climate risks on its short-, medium- and long-term performance. The three climate scenarios described above were based on this work and on internal scenarios constructed by the R&D and Strategy departments.